New Delhi/Mumbai: The biggest question to earn money in the stock market is "When is the right time to invest?" The answer is not straightforward, but it can be understood with data, history and expert advice. Let's know when and how to invest:
1. "Timing the market" vs "Time in the market"
Fact: After the 2008 market crash, Nifty 50 rose from 2,250 points to 24,000+ in 2024. That is, those who invested for a long time got an average return of 12-15% annually.
Expert advice:
"Instead of timing the market, focus on regular investment (SIP)."Warren Buffett
"Find an opportunity to buy in the dip of the market." Rakesh Jhunjhunwala
2. Understand the market cycle
The stock market goes through 4 phases:
1. Bear Market: Stocks fall continuously. Example: March 2020 (Covid Crash)
2. Recovery: Market gradually rises.
3. Bull Market: Stocks rise continuously. Example: 2021-2023.
4. Correction: Market falls 10-20%.
Right time: Start investing during Bear Market or Correction.
3. How to identify "cheap" stocks?
P/E Ratio: The average P/E of Nifty 50 is 22-25. If P/E is below 20, then the stocks are considered cheap.
GDP Growth: When India's GDP growth is above 7%, the market becomes bullish.
Sector based opportunities:
IT sector: May be cheaper during US recession.
Infrastructure: Gains on increased government spending ahead of elections.
4. Current situation (2024) and opportunities
Election year: History shows that the market grows by an average of 18% in an election year.
FII investments: FIIs have invested ₹1.2 lakh crore so far in 2024, which is a sign of bullishness.
Global risks: US Fed interest rates and China-Taiwan tensions may destabilize the market.
5. What should new investors do?
Start SIP: Invest every month in index funds (Nifty 50, Sensex).
Example: SIP of ₹5,000/month in Nifty since 2010 would have become ₹42 lakh today (15% CAGR).
Diversify: Divide money across stocks, mutual funds, gold ETFs.
Don't panic: Investors sold at a loss in the 2020 crash, but those who held on got 150%+ returns.
Top tips from experts
1. "Don't listen to the market noise" Peter Lynch
2. "When everyone is afraid, buy. When everyone is greedy, sell." Warren Buffett
3. "Choose quality stocks for the long term." Radhakishan Damani
Conclusion: What is the best time?
Answer: Don't wait for the "right time". Start today and continue investing regularly.
Data shows: Between 2000-2023, the CAGR of investors was 14.7% every year, regardless of when the market started.
Source: NSE data, SEBI reports, and analysis from firms like Motilal Oswal, Goldman Sachs.